McKinsey research shows AI creating more jobs than automation displaces — but 11 million American workers will need help this decade

While debates about AI’s impact on the workforce dominate headlines, the biggest challenge ahead will be helping workers find the most direct pathway into growing jobs.

Our new research finds that the U.S. economy will have more jobs by 2035 than today.

But the mix will differ, requiring many workers to retrain or earn credentials.

Roughly 11 million Americans may need to leave a shrinking occupation for an entirely different one.

Many will find work within the occupational group they already know, but an average of 770,000 workers a year will need to cross occupational lines over the next decade, 3.6 times the historical rate.

COVID-19 produced a similar surge, but it lasted a year or two.

This one will last at least a decade.

Consider an administrative assistant who has spent a decade keeping a department humming along.

Our research finds that automation could take on 80 percent of the hours worked in office and administrative support, the occupational group facing the largest job losses by 2035.

Administrative assistants have a pathway to a growing job that offers more pay: project manager.

Their skills match a project manager’s better than one might expect.

They already plan, schedule, coordinate operations, document decisions, and manage stakeholders—tasks that occupy about 58 percent of what a project manager does.

The gap is real but manageable: project-scheduling methods, process improvement, forecasting, quality management, and business development.

But one requirement is a high hurdle.