Everyone is watching Texas and Michigan. As a pollster, I know where the real story is

With less than a month until the midterms , everyone has suddenly become an expert on Texas and Michigan.

I understand why.

Texas has Texas state Rep.

James Talarico, the charismatic Democrat trying to do something Democrats have dreamed about for decades: turn Texas blue.

He is running against former attorney general Ken Paxton, a Republican carrying enough political baggage to fill the overhead bins on a 747.

FOX NEWS POLL: IT’S A LONE STAR SENATE SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TALARICO AND PAXTON Michigan has Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

Whatever you think of his progressive politics, he is a rare political talent: charismatic, compelling, and very good at attracting attention.

His race against former Republican Rep.

Mike Rogers has become one of the most closely watched contests in America.

Watch them both.

FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS But if you want to understand what is actually happening in this election, I'd look somewhere else.

I'd look at Iowa .

FOX NEWS POLL: TUREK, HINSON IN CLOSE IOWA SENATE RACE Because Iowa doesn't come with quite the same political celebrity.

It doesn't have the irresistible "Texas turns blue!" storyline.