Feds probe 'mention markets' amid White House Kalshi controversy

Federal regulators have opened an inquiry into so-called "mention markets" on prediction market sites, where people bet millions of dollars on what a speaker may or may not utter. Erin Hooley/AP Photo/Erin Hooley/AP hide caption

Federal regulators have launched a review of so-called "mention markets" on prediction market sites, where bettors wager millions of dollars on the word choice of everyone from President Trump to soccer sportscasters, according to two people with direct knowledge of the probe who spoke to NPR on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

In response, Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the U.S., has removed all mention markets from its betting offerings for sports as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pursues its inquiry, according to one of the people.

While most sports betting on the site involves the action of the game, this separate type of betting has grown increasingly popular, allowing people to put money down on whether a sportscaster will say things like "MVP," "ankle" or "redshirt." These markets have now been taken down "until further notice" and it is unclear when or if Kalshi will bring them back, the person said.

Technology Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly' Sports wagers account for more than 80% of the billions of dollars traded every week on the site, so taking down mention markets for sporting events will significantly cut into the category. Kalshi is still allowing wagers related to what people say at political events , on earnings calls and during live television newscasts .

The stepped-up scrutiny from Washington on one of the most controversial areas of the booming prediction market sector comes after a high-profile incident involving betting on a speaker's words reached the White House.

Last month, regulators revealed that President Trump's longtime teleprompter operator was using Kalshi to profit from correctly betting on what words the president would or would not utter during public appearances. Kalshi said its internal surveillance tools flagged the suspiciously well-timed bets and reported them to federal authorities.

"These mention markets are not popular across the political aisle," said the other person with knowledge of the probe who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations at the CFTC. "They are potentially very easy to manipulate, so the CFTC is taking a hard look at whether some of them make sense."

Technology 2 young billionaires are behind the prediction market boom. They hate each other Polymarket, Kalshi's main competitor, also offers mention markets, but only on its popular overseas site, which is not regulated by the CFTC. Polymarket's smaller U.S.