Many ex-aides to Harris betting against a 2028 run

Many of those who know Kamala Harris best think she ultimately won't run for the White House in 2028.

Why it matters: What the former vice president decides to do is one of the biggest X factors in the next presidential contest: Early polls suggest Harris is the frontrunner to be the Democratic nominee, and if she opted out, it would scramble the primary.

Zoom in: Over the past year, a surprisingly large number of former aides, surrogates and donors to Harris have told Axios they believe she won't launch another campaign.

They argue that the moves she's making — hitting the trail for midterm candidates, going on the podcast circuit, and writing a book — might make her look like a contender-in-waiting, but actually amount to her simply trying to maintain influence.

Harris has said publicly and privately she hasn't made up her mind yet, and some of her former aides concede they could be wrong — or could even be "wishcasting" because they don't want her to pursue another bid.

This week, we surveyed eight former Harris aides and advisers, including those who worked for her at a senior level, to get their most up-to-date read.

Only one thought Harris probably will run.

Two said it's a coin-flip, and five said she likely won't.

Here's why: She's doing "the bare minimum" to stay in the 2028 conversation, as one past aide put it.

Harris' former staffers argue that if she were gung-ho about running she'd be hiring more, traveling more, and inserting herself into policy debates more often.

She's a rational actor.

Former aides say Harris is well aware of the hurdles that would await her if she ran again.

"She's a realist and an astute political observer, and she knows her candidacy could get bogged down in a 2024 rearview mirror," said a second former aide.

The money might not be there.