Cook Political Report tilts 18 House races toward Democrats

House races in Iowa , Pennsylvania, Washington , Michigan and more are shifting in Democrats' direction, according to a Friday update from the closely watched Cook Political Report.

Why it matters: The GOP's midterm outlook was already bleak , anchored by an unpopular war and high fuel prices.

But staving off a blue resurgence, despite heavy spending , is looking increasingly complicated as Election Day approaches.

Driving the news: Cook's new moves put the likely midterm outcome at Democrats picking up nine to 19 seats, a range of 224 to 234.

The shifts include: Five seats — in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington — moving from toss ups to leaning toward Democrats, including Rep.

Mariannette Miller-Meeks' (R-Iowa) tough rematch race against Democrat ⁠Christina Bohannan.

Cook also nudged four races — in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia — from leaning toward Republicans to toss-ups.

That's good news for Rep.

Don Davis (D-N.C.), whose district was warped by mid-decade redistricting.

Republicans' hold on other races in Kentucky, Maine, Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Indiana slipped, shifting them to Lean R or Likely R.

Meanwhile, Democrats' hold on Nevada, New York and Nebraska races tightened.

Friction point: President Trump is crisscrossing the country to campaign for GOP candidates.

But with the midterms serving as a referendum on his White House, his polling may well be a liability for Republicans in tight races.

Republicans have quietly distanced themselves from the president — and it appears even some Trump voters get it: A Politico poll out Friday found that some one-in-four who voted for him in 2024 say the Republican candidate in their district would be better off breaking from Trump.