NBC's Data Guru Warns Blue State Could Slip From Dems’ Grasp

NBC NBC’s chief data analyst Steve Kornacki has warned that Democrats could lose a Senate seat in reliably blue Minnesota as a widespread government fraud scandal threatens to doom their candidate.

Kornacki pointed to possible backlash against Democratic Lt.

Gov.

Peggy Flanagan during a Wednesday appearance on Today, warning that her ties to Gov.

Tim Walz could give her Republican opponent, Michele Tofoya, an opening.

“Tafoya, the Republican, has been saying, ‘If you’re upset about that scandal, don’t vote for the lieutenant governor,’” Kornacki said.

“There does seem to be a tide within the state that might be working against Democrats” The race has tightened amid allegations of billions of dollars in fraud involving government programs under Walz’s watch, a scandal Republicans have used to attack Flanagan, his lieutenant governor.

Recent polling from KSTP/SurveyUSA polling shows Flanagan up by a mere three points, with 14 percent of voters still undecided.

“Relatively close here for Republicans, they’ve been trying for decades to flip Minnesota.

What they think is working in their favor here is there’s a state scandal there about medicaid fraud.

The governor, Tim Walz, didn’t run for reelection because of it — this is his lieutenant governor!” Kornacki said.

Flanagan has attempted to distance herself from the governor since the scandal broke.

Their most recent joint press announcement earlier this month strictly highlighted accomplishments in their effort to end veteran homelessness.

The two have rarely appeared in public together since the end of 2024.