5 states could be the biggest losers in Trump's trade war with Canada, expert warns

Americans' pocketbooks could take yet another hit ahead of the November election as President Donald Trump escalates his trade war with Canada — with five key battleground states likely facing the most fallout.

Billions of dollars in U.S. exports are exposed to the northern neighbor's retaliatory tariffs that target American goods across a range of industries.

The outcome? Costs are expected to continue rising for U.S. businesses and consumers in the weeks leading to the must-win midterms.

Affordability remains a prominent issue for voters , while tariffs remain a cornerstone of Trump's economic agenda.

He claims the strategy will result in more domestic manufacturing and pressure trade partners into agreements that are more beneficial for American industries and consumers.

But the result so far has been an increase in prices for the average American family.

"American manufacturers or American businesses who rely on Canadian inputs are going to start to feel the pain right in the lead up to going to the ballot box," David Clement, policy director of the free market nonprofit Consumer Choice Center, told Fox News Digital.

TRUMP JUST EXPANDED HIS TARIFF PLAYBOOK WITH A POWERFUL TRADE WEAPON NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER USED Clement identified Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as among the states most exposed to negative fallout, based on their current trade with Canada and the goods targeted by the tariffs.

"Ohio is by far the most vulnerable state in terms of exposure from the Canadian retaliatory tariffs," Clement said, estimating roughly $2.3 billion in exports to Canada are exposed.

He pointed to machinery, transportation products, minerals and metals as major sources of that vulnerability.

In Michigan, the impact is particularly evident in the auto industry, where supply chains are deeply intertwined with neighboring Ontario.

"Most Americans don’t know that a single component on a U.S.-assembled vehicle can cross the border upwards of eight times before it’s actually completed," Clement said.

"When you are tariffing automotive parts going across the border each way," he added, "it really gums up the very intertwined supply chain for cars between Michigan and Ontario." A FRESH MIDTERM HEADACHE FOR THE GOP JUST HIT A NATIONAL RECORD Those costs can eventually make their way to consumers, Clement argued.

Pennsylvania also faces significant exposure.