How much is Kalshi really worth? A detailed report says as much as $42 billion—if everything goes right

Since prediction markets exploded in popularity in 2024, the industry’s two leading players, Kalshi and Polymarket , have been raising staggering amounts of money.

In the case of Kalshi, the startup notched a $1 billion Series F in May that valued it at $22 billion, and investors are eyeing an initial public offering as soon as next year.

But even as the company pulls in gobs of revenue, its business model faces huge uncertainty due to a looming Supreme Court case that raises the question of whether that valuation is justified.

Now, research firm PitchBook has put out a 46-page report that seeks to define Kalshi’s true worth.

The detailed report by analyst Franco Granda parses financial metrics and examines the legal landscape confronting prediction markets, and ultimately concludes Kalshi should be valued at $30.4 billion based on expected 2028 adjusted earnings.

The report qualifies that figure by forecasting that assigns a $22.8 billion valuation to the company in the event of a bear case scenario, and a $42.1 billion figure for a bullish scenario.

As the following graphic shows, PitchBook predicts Kalshi’s revenue will reach $6.4 billion by 2030, and that the company will pull in $3.7 billion in adjusted earnings: In an interview with Fortune , Granda shared his view that the company is an enviable competitive position since its main rival, Polymarket, has been able to overcome the early lead Kalshi built among U.S. consumers thanks to a more cautious revenue strategy.

Granda added that Polymarket is also spending considerably more on promotions to acquire new customers, and the prediction market industry has become effectively a two-horse race that will see a handful of other players fighting for scraps.

“Third parties will pick up crumbs here and there but the window of opportunity for people to get in has passed,” said Granda.

The report, meanwhile, included a graph showing the respective volume for the two industry leaders: The PitchBook report further predicts that Kalshi will be able to consolidate its lead on the strength of partnerships with distribution platforms like Robinhood, market makers like Susquehanna, and numerous other tie-ups.

Since Kalshi is a private company that is not obliged to publish its financials, PitchBook’s predictions are based in some cases on estimates rather than hard figures.

According to the company, its report contract draws on data from Kalshi’s API, PitchBook’s internal data, Dune databases, government filings, management commentary, and public peers’ disclosures.

And while the PitchBook offers a broadly bullish outlook for Kalshi, that calculation is based on a reading of the legal tea leaves that some may view as optimistic.