Oil is back above $100—but economists say that number isn’t the real threat to the U.S. economy
When the news this week came out about oil spiking back up above $100 a barrel , analysts didn’t seem to be too concerned.
This may be unusual: in the past , oil price surges sent shockwaves through markets and the economy, causing long lines at gas stations and frustrating drivers.
But this time, economists say $100 oil is less alarming than the number traditionally suggests.
Brent crude oil climbed as high as nearly $110 a barrel on Monday, up 4%—its highest price since May, before easing to around $107 on Tuesday.
The increase raised concerns about inflation and borrowing costs, evoking memories of the oil shock stories from years ago.
Back in 1980 , Americans spent about 6% of their income on gas because they used more and prices were relatively high, according to JPMorgan’s analysis .
Today, that share is about 2.5%.
That doesn’t mean economists are completely at ease.
Their greater concern is not that crude crossed the $100 benchmark, but that shortages have pushed up the prices of gas and diesel—fuels that directly affect people and businesses.
If those prices remain high, Americans might have to cut back on spending while businesses may have to pay more to ship goods, run factories, and operate farm equipment.
The re-emergence of the U.S. as a net energy exporter means oil shocks “hit differently” today, according to Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Pearce told Fortune that higher oil prices are bad news for households, but good news for energy producers.
“There is not a ‘tipping point’ for crude oil prices that will tip the economy into recession,” Pearce said.
Inflation has also changed what the $100 number actually means.
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