Trump’s Gamble to End the Iran War

P resident Trump has been hearing lately from two trusted confidants, each promising a quick path to ending the war in Iran.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has argued that Iran is on the brink of economic collapse and that a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with sanctions, will force Tehran to capitulate at the negotiation table.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a series of calls with Trump, has offered a different route: one more round of devastating U.S. and Israeli strikes to topple the regime.

Now the Trump administration appears to be considering combining the two approaches, betting that Iran is already on the verge of economic ruin and that a few more major strikes will be enough to trigger regime change.

The president is considering reviving his military campaign against Iran with several days of strikes, likely just after the midterm elections, officials told us.

The potential targets include Iran’s missile and drone arsenal as well as its energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities.

One outside adviser told us that “the economic pressure is working, and we believe Iran is getting close to the edge.” The new strikes, the person added, “would push them over.” Experience suggests that this may be wishful thinking.

Economic pressure has badly weakened Iran, but the country’s negotiating position has hardly budged.

Trump has thought before that Iran was on the verge of ruin—or already past it—only to discover that he’d miscalculated.

And launching more strikes could spark a regional escalation without bringing the regime any closer to surrender.

Speaking at Tehran’s Holy Defence Museum earlier this week, Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, named seven major fiber-optic cables beneath the surface of the Strait of Hormuz as potential “new targets” and teased that future attacks would feature “new weapons.” If the proposed U.S. strike plan fails to bring Iran to its knees, Tehran could emerge even less willing to make concessions.

“Trump is desperate to find some options to take him out from this problematic situation,” Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence officer who specializes in Iran, told us.

“But you cannot plan for a three-day war, because it is not a unilateral decision.

You cannot control how Iran responds.” Nevertheless, the president appears intent on acting.