The $12.5 billion Lakers deal is a bet that sports TV will keep booming. The NFL may test that.

Luke Hales/Getty; Mark Baker/AP; Getty Images; BI Prices for TV sports deals almost always go up.

That's the rationale for Bob Iger and Josh Kushner paying a record amount for the LA Lakers.

But over at the NFL — the dominant force in TV — there are signs that the rise won't go on forever.

Bob Iger and Josh Kushner plan to buy the Los Angeles Lakers at a record-setting price of $12.5 billion .

The best argument for that price: The value of sports TV deals is the one thing that keeps going up, even as the rest of TV contracts.

But even though that's been true for years, it doesn't mean it will always be true.

One hint that things might be changing: The all-powerful NFL — the thing that keeps TV afloat — is starting to see some pushback from its TV partners, led by Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch's Fox.

In 2026, it is very hard to imagine a world where the NFL isn't the most powerful force in media.

But John Ourand , who covers sports media for Puck, makes a case that its power could at least be checked in the years to come.

You can listen to our entire conversation, which also includes a look at Apple's sports strategy, and the WNBA's approach to media deals, on my Channels podcast.

The following is an edited excerpt of our chat: Peter Kafka: If Bob Iger and Josh Kushner are buying the Lakers at a $12.5 billion valuation, that means they think it will be worth even more in the future.

What's the argument for that? John Ourand: In the past, all the valuations of [pro sports] teams were heavily weighted by the fact that media rights deals keep going up by 10%, 20% per year.

But media executives I talk to say, "If they're basing [the Lakers] valuation on future media rights deals, that's a mistake." The Lakers make $200 million a year from their local rights .

And the NBA just got a new deal (for national rights) that pays $7.6 billion a year .