Big Tech's AI spending is bigger than you think

To paraphrase Justin Timberlake in his iconic turn in the 2010 film "The Social Network," a trillion dollars isn't cool.

You know what is? $3 trillion.

The big picture: That's roughly how much money seven Big Tech companies, including Google, Microsoft and Nvidia, have committed to spending on AI-related infrastructure in off-balance-sheet commitments, according to a new analysis from Morgan Stanley.

And that's on top of the estimated $770 billion in debt and lease obligations that are on the balance sheets.

Why it matters: The analysis finds that the total amount of spending on AI is much bigger than the already-mind-blowing headlines suggest, and — more of a red flag — it's more leveraged than is perhaps appreciated.

How it works: Off-balance-sheet commitments are essentially financial obligations that don't show up in a company's official tally of what it owns and owes — it's not an official debt but an obligation to pay someone something in the future.

For example, your household balance sheet would include your assets on one side — house, car, savings — and your debts on the other, mortgage, car loan, credit card.

But it wouldn't include the lease you signed to rent a vacation house for the next five summers (you're living well, congrats).

When the bank evaluates your creditworthiness for a loan, that Cape Cod promise to pay in the future doesn't count the same as your mortgage.

Zoom in: Morgan Stanley looked at filings from the hyperscalers Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and Amazon, as well as the chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom and broke down their off-balance-sheet commitments.

The hyperscalers have committed to $1.1 trillion in payments for data center leases that haven't yet begun.

All seven companies have also agreed to buy $1.7 trillion of other stuff — purchase commitments for chips, memory and networking gear.

These purchase agreements have ramped up this year — Google's commitments totaled $707 billion in the most recent quarter — from $72.5 billion in all of 2025, per the research.

Morgan Stanley Research Follow the money: This is future revenue for memory chipmakers like Micron Technology and helps explain the phenomenal growth in that business.