Fox News Power Rankings: As the House falls, the Senate stays in play

There are two big differences between the previous Trump-era midterms and this year’s contest.

The first is the president’s approval rating, which is lower now than it was during President Donald Trump’s first term in 2018 or President Joe Biden’s term in 2022.

The second is Democrats’ generic ballot lead, which is wider and more enduring than it was in the 2018 "blue wave" election and much larger than the edge the GOP had in 2022.

Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year.

REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS.

SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.

Then there’s a similarity: in all three elections, the Senate has been in play right up until the finish line.

In Trump’s first term, the Republicans ended up gaining two Senate seats despite a gloomy national environment.

Four years ago, with inflation surging, the Democrats managed to add a Senate seat to their tally.

12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACK The Democrats have plentiful paths to 51 seats on election night.

Republicans keep plowing money into six toss-up states, plus Kansas, and those efforts haven’t much moved the needle.

Yet the GOP’s paths to 50 are getting wider.

That, plus a major update to the House forecast, in this week’s edition of the Power Rankings .

The Democratic Party has enjoyed a lead in the House all year.