CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Democrats hold edge in bid for House control

Here's something Republicans and Democrats seem to agree on: They both see the midterms as being about President Trump, albeit for different reasons.

Mr. Trump is so much on voters' minds that if this view holds at these levels through Election Day, it would surpass his own 2018 mark for a president being a factor in midterm elections.

This is also an election set against a wide backdrop of uncertainty on many fronts: The economy, inflation, conflict overseas, and even AI's impact.

So, prices and inflation are driving voter sentiment in 2026 against the party in power, just as they did two years ago.

This is not because voters necessarily think they'll be better off — most don't think either party can help their finances. It's more just out of opposition.

Related to this, most voters would prefer a candidate who opposes new tariffs and opposes the Iran conflict , which is seen as connected to higher prices.

CBS News' House model helps translate general preference for Congress, where Democrats have a lead, into seats — which is, of course, how the House is elected and decided.

It currently puts the Democrats at 228 seats, a majority, though not an historically large one, over the 218 of 435 seats needed. The model estimate ranges into the high 230s if more breaks their way in the coming weeks, but at the lower bounds, it drops to 215, which means Republicans do have a bid to hold on to their current, narrow House majority from here.

That's partly because a lot of MAGA and 2024 Trump voters are staying with the GOP, at least out of opposition to the Democrats.

Most straightforwardly, Democrats are getting the votes of people who say higher prices have been difficult or worse.

More of the Democrats' backing is based on voters trying to stop Trump's policies, rather than on trying to help the Democrats get theirs.

Most voters also do not believe the One Big Beautiful Bill has helped them financially.

Whatever their motivation, more Democrats say they're very enthusiastic about voting than Republicans are.

On the GOP side, Mr. Trump has a turnout effect, too, with MAGA Republicans responding as he and party leaders have urged them to show up.