Unpredictable El Niño season leaves NW farmlands at severe fire risk

The North West province is at risk of losing over 1.6 million hectares of land, including veld and farmland , as what is expected to be the province’s worst fire season intensifies.

This is according to the North West Umbrella Fire Protection Association.

The association says wildfires are also expected to intensify as extreme El Niño conditions build up.

Chairperson of the North West Umbrella Fire Protection Association, Eric Stoch, says, “Our worst year to date was 2023, when we lost 1.4 million hectares, and we were not successful as a province in having a state of disaster declared, so that the national government could put money to the province to assist us.

However, in the Federal Republic of the Western Cape, when they sneeze, they get a lot of money to go and help.

We are now working with provincial disaster management and national disaster management to see if we can act proactively to prevent it.

With the Super El Niño coming, we are predicting possibly the worst season, and we’re looking at maybe 1.6 million hectares that we’re going to lose for the year.” Professor Roelof Burger, who is an atmospheric scientist at the North West University, says that while there is no strong correlation between El Niño and high active fire seasons, biomass from previous rains could increase the chance of active fires.

“The outlook for the season is indeed very bleak.

The most prominent forecast is extreme high temperatures throughout the whole spring and summer seasons, and then along with that, really below normal rainfall.

So with the high temperatures and good biomass, there is indeed some chance for very active fires.

In terms of municipal support services and infrastructure, the Northwest Province is lagging a little bit behind.

On the other hand, I think we have a strong community effort.” X | @SABCNews | WATCH | SADC Countries could face worsening food-security challenges, amid concerns that a strong El Niño could have severe consequences for agriculture, water security and conservation efforts across the region.

AgriSA CEO Johann Kotze says this can last until next April. pic.twitter.com/V0gl0DxsEc — SABC News (@SABCNews) August 31, 2026 Video| Possible extended dry El Niño season a major concern for the sector: AgriSA CEO |