Opposition set to halt Sweden’s slide to right

STOCKHOLM, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Sweden's centre-left opposition looked set on Monday to form the next government as preliminary election results projected a narrow three-seat lead over the right-wing ruling parties with most votes counted after Sunday's election.

An opposition victory would halt a slide to the right over the last four years that has transformed Sweden from one of Europe's most welcoming countries for immigrants to one of its toughest asylum regimes .

While a centre-left government may take a softer line, it is unlikely to return to the generous, open-door immigration policies of past decades, analysts say. It would also stick to Sweden's pro-Western and pro-Ukraine stance.

Left-leaning parties backing Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson were projected to win 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament while Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson 's right-wing bloc was seen winning 173 seats, the election authority said.

"If this result remains valid, Sweden will get a new government," Andersson told supporters on Sunday night.

Party leaders, however, have been cautious about claiming victory or accepting defeat with 353 election districts still to be counted and overseas votes not likely to be tallied until Wednesday.

In 2022, exit polls initially gave a narrow victory to the centre-left which proved premature and Kristersson showed no sign of conceding when he spoke after Sunday's election.

Andersson has yet to say how she would unite a divided centre-left behind her in a coalition.

"The most likely outcome is a government led by the Social Democrats," said Niklas Bohlin, political scientist at the Mid-Sweden University. "Exactly what that government will look like is far less certain."

The election pitted a fragmented centre-left against a united centre-right bloc that has overhauled Sweden's immigration and criminal justice systems and planned to bring the far-right Sweden Democrats into the coalition - step too far for some voters.

The party, with roots in the neo-Nazi fringe , lost an estimated 11 seats, projections showed, the first time the party has seen its share of the vote decline since entering parliament in 2010.

If a centre-left win is confirmed, forming a government could take some time.

While Social Democrat leader Andersson would be prime minister, it remains unclear which other parties could be in her government. The Centre Party has refused to share power with the Left Party which says it must be a part of any coalition.

"It could very well be a complicated process to form a government," the speaker of the parliament, Andreas Norlen, told Swedish television.