Western Cape warns of El Niño risks as summer heat, fires and water pressure loom

A powerful El Niño climate pattern is rapidly developing in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to influence South Africa's weather over the coming months.

Western Cape Premier Alan Winde, along with other officials, has outlined the province’s preparedness for risks related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the upcoming summer season.

“The Western Cape has learned difficult lessons over the past several months and years; we must all always be prepared for the pressures of climate change and associated risks,” Winde said.

He hosted a digital briefing on Thursday, with the MEC for Local Government, Environmental Affairs and Development Planning, Anton Bredell, along with other officials, attending.

ENSO is a global climate cycle driven by changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Even though it starts in the tropical Pacific, it acts like a giant atmospheric “see-saw” that alters weather patterns across the globe.

ENSO is currently in an El Niño state and is expected to continue strengthening over the next several months.

Although ENSO’s most direct and severe effects in South Africa are experienced in summer-rainfall regions, it also presents risks to the Western Cape.

The province’s residents should still be prepared for weather-related impacts, such as:

“Over the past several months, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned us of lower-than-average rainfall for the Western Cape. While our province was hit hard by severe flooding events in May 2026, which included heavy rains, this does not necessarily mean the region received enough rain to adequately bolster and secure our water resources through summer. We must all be aware of our water usage,” Winde said.

According to the Chief Director for Environment Sustainability at the Western Cape Government, Karen Shippey, they have done detailed modelling work with the University of Cape Town to better understand the impact of climate change.

“We are seeing significant increases in temperatures and some acceleration of temperature changes. Although these are not new to our climate, what we see is that they are different to historical events because we have this extra accelerator that human-induced climate change is bringing,” Shippey said.

The Western Cape dam levels are currently 5% lower than this time last year.

The meeting heard the province had experienced the consequences of drought before, and water security cannot depend only on rainfall and existing surface water infrastructure:

This represents more than R65 million in targeted investment in water resilience initiatives.