Who really speaks for white and Afrikaans-speaking South Africans?

When an organisation speaks on behalf of a community, whose reality does it describe? That of the people themselves, or the version that best suits its political campaign? This question has become urgent as allegations of persecution of white South Africans have become part of an international diplomatic dispute. Before describing an entire community as victims, we should at least listen to what its members say about their own lives.

Some people suffer disadvantage, experience injustice, and have good reason to be angry or afraid. Their experiences deserve attention. No majority’s satisfaction cancels an individual’s rights.

But the reverse also applies: individual grievances cannot simply be elevated into a description of an entire community’s circumstances. The severity of an experience and its prevalence are two different things.

This is precisely where the persecution narrative needs to be tested. The Ipsos Khayabus survey, which feeds into the Inclusive Society Institute’s South African Social Cohesion Index, provides an important insight into people’s assessments of their circumstances.

The latest edition of the index was published earlier this year. The survey involves more than 3,000 respondents, interviewed face-to-face in their homes and home languages. This gives us a much broader basis than selected personal testimonies.

Asked how their family lives compared with a year earlier, 79.30% of white respondents say their circumstances are better or about the same. Of these, 34.04% report improvement and 45.26% no substantial change. Almost four in five therefore report stability or progress. This is a striking finding against a portrayal of increasingly intolerable living conditions.

Expectations for the coming year are even stronger. Among white respondents, 82.71% expect their family to be better off or about the same. Of these, 44.98% expect improvement and 37.73% stability.

Among Afrikaans speakers, the corresponding total is 85.33% – 48.54% expect improvement and 36.79% stability. Almost half of both groups therefore expect actual improvement, rather than merely a continuation of their present circumstances.

The longer view of children’s prospects also shows more hope than pessimism. Among white respondents, 52.71% expect a bright future for their children or those of their friends, compared with 39.36% who expect a poor future. Among Afrikaans speakers, the figures are 53.66% and 36.85%.

The question does not specify where that future will unfold. Nevertheless, it is significant that the majority’s answer is hopeful.

Then there are race relations. Among white respondents, 71.32% believe relations between the country’s races are improving or staying the same – 35.58% see improvement and 35.74% no change. Among Afrikaans speakers, the total is 71.67%, with 31.13% seeing improvement and 40.54% reporting unchanged relations. Here, too, deterioration is not the predominant response.

We must read these figures honestly. Unchanged relations are not necessarily good relations. Stable family circumstances do not prove that someone never experiences discrimination.