Hottest year yet on record expected for South Africa in 2027

Hot temperatures and lower than usual rainfall are forecast for the country from October to December.

A strong El Niño event has formed in the Pacific Ocean and is likely to become a very strong event this Spring, according to the South African Weather Service (Saws).

“The latest weekly average sea surface temperate anomalies over the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean are already exceeding the threshold that defines a very strong El Niño.

“The latest predictions are indicative the El Niño will likely intensify further to become the strongest event in living memory.”

A strong El Niño refers to an event where three-monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies over the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean exceeding .,5°C with respect to climatology, while during a very strong El Niño this part of the ocean is 2°C warmer than normal. The latest forecasts indicate the current event is likely to exceed the 3°C threshold.

The latest seasonal forecast by Saws for October to December indicates below normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa. This period is also very likely to be associated with above normal temperatures.

“The expected very strong El Niño of 2026/27, in combination with global warming, will likely result in 2027 being the warmest year ever recorded.

”The 2015/16 very strong El Niño event brought unprecedented heatwaves to the southern African region. In the 11 years that have since passed, the southern African region has also continued to warm. If the 2026/27 El Niño event brings the expected below normal rainfall to southern Africa, it is likely a high frequency of heatwaves will co-occur. These heatwaves have the potential to be severe."

Updated forecasts will be shared in coming months as the Saws said it will closely monitor the extent of expected heatwaves and water scarcity.