DIGITAL POLITICS OP-ED: Borders, ballots, court clashes — how the anti-immigrant movement is setting SA’s elections agenda

The anti-immigrant movement regained dominance in South Africa’s online political conversation before the 4 November local elections, driven by the government’s asylum policy reversal and controversy surrounding activist Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court’s decision to reinstate ANC candidates intensified political disputes, while suspected undisclosed paid campaigns increasingly targeted individual politicians rather than just state entities.

Three weeks before the 4 November local elections, the anti-foreigner movement reclaimed South Africa’s online political conversation. A Home Affairs U-turn on asylum and a News24 investigation gave it fresh momentum. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court put the ANC back on the ballot.

Between Friday, 9 October and Thursday, 15 October 2026, Murmur Intelligence tracked political conversation across X and popular public Facebook pages. On X, about 920,000 posts were authored by, or posted about, South African parties, institutions and politicians.

As expected, the White Cross Project surge of two weeks ago proved temporary. Two anti-immigration communities now produced 43% of all posts on X from 24% of accounts, and they again had the highest buzzer scores of the large communities, a sign of sustained coordinated amplification (note how the users in red cluster around March and March’s Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma’s account in the below network visualisation).

The trigger was Home Affairs’ withdrawal of its online asylum directive. Ngobese-Zuma told followers the directive was gone but the Constitutional Court judgment was not, and her network, echoed by Busisiwe Mkhwebane , pushed for a referendum and withdrawal from the 1951 Refugee Convention.

When News24 reported on her tenders and funding, #HandsOffJacinta and #WeAreJacinta followed, with ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba and MK accounts rallying to her . On Facebook, Operation Dudula ran the third most-engaged political page, behind SABC News and SAPS.

The Afrikaner rights community fell from 24% of posts two weeks ago to 13%. Its buzzer score stayed among the lowest in the network, consistent with passionate activism rather than manufactured reach. It is only when Elon Musk and the American Maga community amplify this community’s content – like when President Cyril Ramaphosa visited the White House in early 2025 – that we see unusual amplification patterns around this community’s content.

Its focus shifted from Washington to home: farm attacks , attacks on the Constitutional Court ANC candidates list ruling , and defending Ngobese-Zuma against News24 , drawing it closer to the anti-immigrant movement (which is not surprising given that AfriForum and March and March are now formally aligned ).

The EFF supporters community produced 8.5% of posts on X, down from 14% two weeks ago and 9% last week. Its campaign was conventional: the announcement of a closing rally at Orlando Stadium on 31 October and Tlaleng Mofokeng’s Johannesburg mayoral bid . EFF voices also condemned xenophobic vigilantism .

RET and MK party supporters held steady at 6.4% of posts from 3.7% of accounts.