Prolonged Ukraine war makes divisive Putin more dangerous, warns Nato commander

Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming “increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting” as his war in Ukraine drags on and he seeks to divide Western allies, Nato’s deputy commander in Europe said on Tuesday.

Air chief marshal Sir John Stringer spoke at a security conference in Estonia amid warnings from some European leaders that Moscow is planning to test Nato’s collective defence pact with bolder attacks that have already included sabotage and espionage.

Stringer warned that Nato members need to be aware of the “febrile environment” and be careful in their response because Putin would like to provoke the alliance into an “overreaction”.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last week Russia might target Nato nations with deliberate drone or missile strikes while claiming they were accidental. French President Emmanuel Macron agreed and has asked his government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure against potential drone attacks and cyberattacks.

Other European officials said the threat from Russia is serious but have called for calm.

A British defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters, said the UK assessment is that Putin is not seeking direct confrontation with Nato. Officials in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which border Russia, have also been more cautious about the prospect of a serious escalation after years of calling on Western nations to adopt a more hawkish approach to Moscow.

“Ukraine is fighting. Russia is absorbed in Ukraine. We do not observe any buildup near our borders. From that part, I think most would agree his perspective of direct military attack is not correct,” Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics told a small group of reporters late on Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

The US ambassador to Nato, Matthew Whitaker, dismissed any concerns that Russia may be testing the transatlantic military alliance, saying after a panel discussion in Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday night that “Putin does not want a conflict with Nato”.

He said drone incursions into countries, including Romania and Poland, were largely the result of electronic warfare and unintentional, but he noted hybrid activities such as sabotage “are more concerning”. Whitaker also warned against “overreacting” because “that’s exactly what I think our adversaries would want or hope for”.

European countries have faced many incursions of Russian drones, and several missiles, and a campaign of covert Russian disruption which began after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

An AP interactive map tracking the campaign shows the escalation, from 59 incidents in March 2025 to more than 210 incidents ranging from vandalism, propaganda and influence operations to arson, sabotage and cyberattacks.

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said in Iowa that Putin “knows the US and Europe are totally intertwined”.

“We have to make sure we are prepared, we are strong, and he knows it.