Split Likud will determine Netanyahu’s re-election hopes

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will choose its candidates to contest in October elections on Monday, with analysts saying a shift further to the right by many members could threaten the Israeli leader’s chances of winning.

The contenders who emerge from Monday’s primaries are already facing a brutal race — polls suggest Likud’s popularity has plummeted since the October 7 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, and the party could lose a third of its seats.

Researchers said Likud could have an even tougher fight if its 140,000 listed members choose a roster of populist, hard-right candidates, at a time when surveys show more of its traditional voters want to head closer to the political centre.

“The gap between Likud party members and Likud voters and the general public has increased substantially, and this might have a dramatic effect on Netanyahu’s ability to win,” said analyst Nimrod Nir, at the Hebrew University’s Agam Labs.

An Agam Labs survey published on August 11 showed more than half of Likud voters — 54.9% — wanted a more centrist government than Netanyahu’s current coalition, which includes ultra-Orthodox Jewish and nationalist parties.

But just a third of the listed party members who will choose the candidates on Monday would like to see a centre-right government, according to the survey.

Two thirds wanted something similar to the outgoing coalition, formed after Netanyahu’s 2022 election victory.

The current government includes national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s ultranationalist Jewish Power party and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, which have advocated for depopulating Gaza and resettling it.

Netanyahu has been on a mission to recruit more moderate candidates to balance out populists who have gained momentum in the primaries race.

“As prime minister of Israel, I intend to deepen the unity within us,” Netanyahu said in a video statement posted on July 22. “Therefore, I will work to establish a broad national government, a stable government that will ensure our security and future.”

One senior former Likud member with knowledge of the party’s strategy said those efforts are so far not going well.

“If [Netanyahu] improves the list and brings better people, then maybe he will succeed, but he’s not going in the right direction,” the former party member added, without going into further details.

Four former and current senior Likud members, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the party was scrambling to win back voters who have drifted away since the last ballot.

A spokesperson for the Likud party did not respond to a request for comment.