ANALYSIS: ANC list fight reveals rise of federal power blocs

The candidate list crisis is exposing an ANC increasingly divided into powerful provincial and regional blocs willing to defy the party centre – while the revolt may also be an early proxy battle over Fikile Mbalula’s presidential ambitions.

Facing a loss of up to 1,400 candidates in the 4 November local elections, ANC power brokers in provinces and regions have scuppered reform candidates supported by the party’s national leaders.

This has led to the list fight where the party failed to register 181 councillor candidates (130 proportional representatives and 51 ward candidates). It’s a tiny percentage of total candidate submissions, but the growing crisis shows the party’s centre is not holding as it becomes increasingly federalised.

The ANC has always operated on the philosophy of democratic centralism: a strong national leadership with systems of smaller structural power for provinces and regions. This is how the party built its movement character and stayed in power for as long as it has – the ANC is Africa’s oldest liberation movement. That idea is now under assault from inside.

As the ANC gets smaller, and more members are threatened with political and administrative job losses, the centre is not holding. The rate of cadre deployment into municipal administration is higher than at national level, and ANC members face significant livelihood and rent losses.

This is a key factor behind the fight that the ANC will take to the electoral court this week. As Lunga Simelane reports , the ANC will face an uphill battle as the IEC audit trail shows its systems worked and that the party’s problems emanated from its sub-national structures that did not submit names, were late or used incorrect ID numbers in 252 cases. The Eastern Cape, for example, submitted its lists to the ANC HQ 29 minutes before they were due, according to weekend reports of an internal party assessment.

In Gauteng, the ANC’s Joburg region failed to submit the name of the party’s big reform candidate, Reverend Frank Chikane. The veteran leader is meant to face off against the DA’s Helen Zille, the leading candidate in two sets of polls.

In Limpopo, MP and bigwig Soviet Lekganyane, a potential Polokwane mayoral candidate, was also left off the list. The two, as well as other absences, show that regional and provincial bosses will not easily accept or assimilate candidates touted as reformers by national leaders.

The ANC’s year of fixing local government, declared in its January 8 address, is in fact becoming its year of splintering. The party opened its selection processes to six different entry points, including public nominations, as this statement set out . The narrative was that the party would open up to the best and brightest who wanted to join and lead.

But in local fiefdoms like the Eastern Cape and Gauteng, where the ANC’s decline started to bite with losses in 2024, local leaders are fighting back.