More than 2.6 million Australians will be living with cancer diagnosis by 2050, say scientists

More than 2.6 million Australians are forecast to be living with a cancer diagnosis by 2050 – an increase of 1 million people over the next 25 years.

For the first time, researchers have used scientific modelling to estimate the prevalence of cancer in Australia in the future, including those in active treatment and people who have survived the disease, but require ongoing care.

The study, published in The Lancet Regional Health Western Pacific medical journal, predicted breast cancer would be the nation’s most prevalent cancer in 2050, followed by prostate, melanoma, colorectal and kidney cancer.

Almost 1.7 million Australians have cancer or are in the post-treatment phase of the disease, but by 2050, researchers have predicted the total number of people living with cancer will rise by 57 per cent to more than 2.6 million.

Currently, the nation’s population is about 28 million, but by 2050, the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates it could grow to between 32 and 38 million, depending on fertility rates, migration and life expectancy.

Population growth, a rise in ageing Australians and a soaring incidence of certain cancer types is expected to prompt a surge in people being diagnosed.

Roughly 44 per cent of the 2.6 million Australians forecast to be living with cancer by 2050 are expected to have an incurable cancer that will require ongoing treatment.

“Our projections suggest that in 2050, while more than half of people with a past cancer diagnosis will be potentially cured (1.47 million), about 1.15 million people will be living with cancer (cancers not yet cured) and requiring active treatment or ongoing care,” the researchers wrote.

But in hopeful news, researchers predicted that in the future, cancer survival rates would improve thanks to earlier detection and advancements in treatments such as pioneering immunotherapy. They predicted this would lead to a record rise in people living longer with the disease or being declared “cancer-free” following treatment.

Professor Michael Jefford, a co-senior author of the research, and the director of the Australian Cancer Survivorship Centre at Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, said national survival rates had improved remarkably in the past 20 years.

“The five-year survival rate for all cancers in Australia is over 70 per cent, which is the highest it’s ever been,” the medical oncologist said.

“People are having cancer detected at an early stage and at a stage where it can be cured.”

Jefford said while the number of cases diagnosed would continue to climb, the research highlighted a “huge” increase in cancer survivors, many of whom would have other illnesses or ongoing health issues as result of the disease or their age.

Melbourne woman Naveena Nekkalapudi was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2014 at age 39.