Exclusive poll shows nearly half of respondents defecting from Victorian Labor. What do these voters care about?

A new poll of Victorians shows almost half of respondents who voted Labor in the 2022 state election intend to vote differently this November, with more than 13% moving their vote to One Nation and a further 11% intending to vote for the Coalition.

The survey, conducted by Accent Research as part of an in-depth study of the Victorian state election funded by the University of Melbourne, also found the cost of living was easily the most pressing issue for voters, with more than 68% listing it in their top three concerns.

Worryingly for the Carroll Labor government, just 18.8% of voters thought Labor was the party best able to deal with cost-of-living issues, behind the Coalition (23.9%) and just ahead of One Nation (15.7%).

While much of the campaigning efforts against the Labor government have been directed at issues of corruption, voters say household financial pressures will be the key issue in November.

The key issues Our poll, made up of a representative sample of 1,002 Victorians, asked voters to nominate their biggest issues this election.

Two thirds of our sample — 68% — nominated cost of living as one of their “top three” issues when presented with a list of a dozen policy areas to choose from.

56% put crime in their top three, and 38% did so for health.

Other issues — corruption, public debt, schools, the environment — were lower down in voter priorities.

Cost of living is not a surprise issue: it has rated high across Australia for some time, with inflation a persistent pressure and a series of interest rate rises biting, though perhaps slightly less in Victoria than other states.

Crime has also been a significant political issue in Victoria for several years.

Both the media and the state opposition have claimed Victoria is in a “crime crisis”, though the latest statistics suggest crime rates are declining .

The appearance of health in the top three is more surprising.

It is of course a perennial issue, but hospitals have not been a major feature of the political debate in Victoria — certainly not in the way they were at the last election .

However, recent strikes by healthcare workers might be a sign the issue will grow in salience.