The American mood is turning dark, and Republicans are likely to pay the price at the midterms

For the White House, the midterm elections are always agony.

They are always a referendum on the president.

On October 12 2010, I was serving on the Democratic staff of the US House of Representatives.

It was just two years after Barack Obama’s historic presidential election victory.

His majority in the House was 39 seats.

I took a scan of the House races in the upcoming midterm elections.

There were at least 86 vulnerable Democratic seats in play.

My best estimate, that day, was that we would lose 54 seats, leaving the Democrats at least 15 short of a majority.

It was clear all was lost.

In every Democratic office, the staff discussed with their representatives the catastrophe on the horizon.

Republicans in the House are having that discussion right now.

Obama was routed with a 64-seat loss in the House that November.

But the surprise was the Democrats retained control of the Senate, 53-47 seats, which is exactly what the Republicans hold today.

A replay of that scenario from 16 years ago would be but a modest catastrophe for President Donald Trump.