Climate-driven wildfires in Canada could cost future generations trillions: study

A researcher from Simon Fraser University claims climate-driven wildfires in Canada could cost future generations trillions of dollars.

“A motivation of this study was to put it into economic terms that the general public could grasp a little bit better,” researcher Sian Kou-Giesbrecht said.

The study estimates that the worldwide price tag from wildfires could top $43 billion annually and $2.1 trillion cumulatively by the end of the century if global temperatures continue to warm between three and four degrees Celsius.

“These are costs that are born globally – these are not costs that are born on Canadians,” Kou-Giesbrecht said.

However, that doesn’t mean that Canadians will be spared the financial fallout.

Suppression costs, net timber yield loss and nature-based recreation loss would amount to $866 million annually and $46 billion cumulatively by the year 2,100, researchers estimate.

“And I would say that is a pretty constrained estimate because we didn’t factor in health costs, which is absolutely gigantic, especially over longer time scales,” Kou-Giesbrecht said.

The modelling also did not account for singular extreme events like Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season, which forced more than 200 communities to evacuate and exposed millions to hazardous pollutants.

It did show, however, that progress on green energy developments is helping to keep the most extreme warming scenarios at bay.

“And ideally, we would see a lot more of the climate action here in Canada,” Kou-Giesbrecht said.

“We just need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, hold global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius or ideally a lot lower and that’s really our only pathway.”