How Brewers slayed Dodgers in NLCS sweep — and why it was no surprise

Despite the Los Angeles Dodgers ’ enviable talent and recent playoff success, it shouldn’t be a shock to see them where they are now — eliminated from the 2026 MLB Postseason.

While the team’s World Series odds briefly peaked above 50 per cent after it dispatched the Atlanta Braves in the National League Division Series, the Dodgers generally lived between 20 and 30 per cent for most of 2026 . With the randomness inherent in short-series baseball, it’s tough to get much higher than that until late in a post-season run, and the team was never close to inevitable. Los Angeles’s current predicament shouldn't just be chalked up to the structure of the sport, though. The Milwaukee Brewers ’ excellence has plenty to do with it.

The combination of the Brewers’ playoff underperformance in recent years and their lack of star power compared to the Dodgers made them seem far more like underdogs than they truly were entering the NLCS. While it’s easy to say with the benefit of hindsight, the way the Brewers took it to the Dodgers should be far from shocking.

A sweep is always an extreme result, and the four games of the NLCS featured some peculiar outcomes — like the Brewers out-homering the Dodgers 7-1. Still, over the course of 162 regular-season games, Milwaukee was the better team. The Brewers didn’t top the Dodgers by every single metric, but they beat out the two-time defending champs in almost every critical number that wasn’t power-related, including runs, OBP, walk rate, ERA and K/9.

The Brew Crew also stole 90 more bases than the Dodgers and had better defensive production by OAA (+19 to +14). In past years, residing in the NL Central created a lower degree of difficulty for Milwaukee and may have juiced its numbers, but this year the division was respectable as the Brewers' divisional opponents produced a 323-325 record. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ NL West rivals went 300-348.

The regular season validated the Brewers’ credentials as an elite team, but it’s understandable that the post-season would be perceived differently. The Dodgers are about as proven a playoff team as you’re going to find, while the Brewers got swept out of the NLCS last year and lost in the wild-card round in each of the two seasons before that. Even so, the way Milwaukee was built fits October baseball nicely.

That starts with pitching. The Brewers have a true ace ( Jacob Misiorowski ) — albeit one on the young side whose workload is overseen with a close eye — who has a good chance of tipping any game he’s in. Their second starter, Logan Henderson , is a pitcher who doesn’t necessarily go deep into games but is extremely efficient on a per-inning basis, an excellent October profile when bullpen usage is heavy. He has posted a 2.33 ERA in his young career with a 2.92 xERA, suggesting he hasn’t fluked into those results in his first 123.2 innings as a big leaguer. Robert Gasser is more steady than spectacular as the third option, but the bullpen is an overwhelming positive.

Milwaukee’s relievers ranked third in the majors in ERA during the regular season (3.40) and fourth in fWAR (7.0), so they projected to be a playoff asset.