UFC 330: Why aggression, grappling will be Makhachev’s path to another victory

UFC 330 takes place Saturday, with Philadelphia hosting its first UFC numbered event since UFC 133.

It may have been worth the wait as this card features two title fights with the sport’s top pound-for-pound fighter headlining against a worthy challenger.

Main Event: Islam Makhachev versus Ian Machado Garry (welterweight championship)

Makhachev’s path: Be aggressive and prioritize grappling. Makhachev’s striking has improved by miles since his UFC debut and he could potentially win a striking battle, but why roll the dice? The more time that Garry has to make reads and adjustments, the more the fight swings to his advantage.

Garry’s best weapon is his fight IQ and the more looks get thrown at him, the harder it will be for him to recognize patterns and capitalize.

Garry’s path: If Makhachev performs as outlined above, Garry’s best path is to frustrate Makhachev by keeping the fight upright and turning it into more of a point-fighting affair. If he can earn a bunch of small wins throughout the fight, he could end up with the big win at the end of the night.

Win more exchanges, don’t get stuck on the ground and weaponize his ability to make reads and adjust. Easier said than done against the best fighter in the sport, but if beating Makhachev was easy, he wouldn’t be on a UFC record-tying 16-fight win streak.

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Co-Main Event: Mackenzie Dern versus Gillian Robertson (women’s strawweight championship)

Dern’s path: Skill-for-skill, Dern has many advantages in this fight that can make her a difficult puzzle for Robertson to solve. Dern’s aggression can be both an asset and a liability. If she pushes forward with punches to try to either set up her grappling or simply land the bigger strikes to win rounds, she could end up getting taken down. However, getting taken down has never been much of a concern for Dern given her world-class grappling pedigree.

Similar to my assessment of the main event, I think that being the busier fighter and switching up her looks throughout the fight will give her a wide advantage. Letting Robertson get settled into the fight will leave openings that will open up her best winning conditions. Dern should aim to be first and establish the terms of the fight early.

Robertson’s path: Creativity is the name of the game for Robertson. She needs to find spots where her ingenuity puts her in advantageous positions. If this bout is a pure striking battle she can potentially out-point Dern. If she takes it to the ground, while that would likely be playing with fire, her ability to find openings and control her opponents are what earned her this title fight in the first place.

She’s going to have to be a step ahead of Dern throughout the fight if she wants to find a way to win. To do so, taking risks will be pivotal.

Turner’s path: Weaponize the strengths of Fernandes against him.