51st state of mind: As Alberta votes on independence, will Trump back separation?

In a few weeks, Albertans will be asked in a referendum whether they want the province to remain in Canada or move toward a second referendum on independence.

An independent Alberta would not only have to meet the requirements of statehood — people, territory, an effective government and the capacity to deal with states — but it would also have to be recognized by other countries, most importantly the United States.

Without recognition, an aspiring state has no international standing.

It could not engage in diplomacy, enter into international agreements or join international organizations.

Read more: Danielle Smith’s dangerous referendum rhetoric threatens Canada’s Constitution and Indigenous treaty rights The Alberta referendum will be Canada’s third, after those in Québec in 1980 and 1995 .

Given the deep ties between Canada and the United States, it’s not surprising that, in both earlier cases, American governments under presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton supported a united Canada.

But President Donald Trump, who has frequently threatened to make Canada a 51st state, has not openly declared his support of a united Canada in the run-up to the Alberta vote, and some around him have spoken positively about the prospect of an independent Alberta Read more: As Alberta separatists court the U.S., prosperity is fuelling a sovereigntist turn The 1980 Québec referendum Parti Québécois Premier René Lévesque came to power in November 1976, pledging a referendum on Québec independence.

The possibility of a divided Canada and an independent Québec on his country’s northern border concerned Carter, who said Canada’s stability “is of crucial importance to us,” while noting it was for Canadians to decide.

He declined to say whether his government would recognize an independent Québec .

In a speech to Congress in February 1977, Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau assured Americans that “ Canada’s unity will not be fractured .” Carter expressed confidence in the outcome.

Vice President Walter Mondale reiterated the administration’s support during a visit to Ottawa the following year.

Lévesque told Americans that an independent Québec would remain a reliable economic and security partner .

But the Carter administration did not change its stand.

The issue became moot in May 1980 when the province’s voters rejected by 60-40 per cent the government’s sovereignty-association referendum.