Rubio in India: What the US secretary’s itinerary signals

The American diplomat’s planned visit to a refinery comes amid a global diesel shortage and President Trump’s sanctions waiver on Russian oil US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Mumbai on Tuesday and visit a major oil refinery in western India the next day as he makes his second visit to the country this year.

Washington’s top diplomat is leaving New Delhi out of his itinerary and is focusing instead on diesel supplies and business deals as high fuel prices weigh on the prospects of US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Rubio is scheduled to visit the Jamnagar refining complex of Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries on Wednesday, where he is expected to meet with its billionaire owner Mukesh Ambani.

The Trump administration is emphasizing business deals over policy and politics as American voters focus on the economy, experts told CNBC.

Why Jamnagar has become important for US Reliance, India’s largest private company, operates the world’s biggest single-site refining complex at Jamnagar – in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Gujarat state – which is capable of processing around 1.4 million barrels of crude a day.

The facility’s importance as a major supplier of refined fuels globally has increased as disruptions in the Middle East and Russia squeeze diesel supplies, with ripple effects on US markets.

US diesel prices averaged $6.29 a gallon in September, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The International Energy Agency has warned that global shortages could persist into 2027.

Reliance has cranked up increased exports amid the crunch.

Its diesel shipments to Europe reached around 4-5 million barrels in July, a ten-month high, while exports to Brazil also rose, Reuters reported.

Any additional Indian diesel flowing to global markets would help ease diesel prices and explain Rubio’s trip to Jamnagar.

Read more India nears deal to operate two Venezuelan oil blocks Reliance, long a major buyer of Russian crude, has increasingly turned to Venezuela after receiving US authorization to purchase oil directly from the South American country earlier this year.

Jamnagar, unlike many other refineries in India, can process Venezuela’s heavy crude.

Venezuelan deliveries scheduled for India could more than double to around 465,000 barrels a day in October, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler.