Ruined by NATO, divided without Gaddafi: Can Libya’s new deal hold?

In an effort to break years of political deadlock, the UN has set up a ‘4+4’ committee, bringing together Libya’s rival factions The long-awaited agreement between Libya’s rival factions was finally signed on August 30 under the auspices of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

On that day, the mission gathered the two negotiating delegations at its Tripoli headquarters to formalize the text ironed out during earlier rounds of talks in Rome and Tunis.

UNSMIL invited foreign diplomats, media representatives, and Libyan delegations to the event, where UN Special Representative Hanna Tetteh hailed the accord in her opening remarks as “another important milestone in Libya’s journey toward stability and national unity.” This, however, bore a resemblance to previous diplomatic milestones – most notably the 2015 Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) signed in Skhirat, Morocco.

The LPA established the rules of the political game in the fractured country; rules to which none of the domestic political actors seem fully committed, yet from which none completely depart.

In a sense, Skhirat remains the ultimate reference point for every subsequent UN roadmap in Libya.

Read more The US has a secret plan for Libya.

It will backfire In the vacuum left by the 2011 NATO intervention and the brutal murder of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has seen a continuous parade of diplomatic accords.

Yet the fundamental problem has never been a shortage of roadmaps, but rather their consolidation into nationally accepted political facts that elites cannot simply manipulate at will.

The August 30 agreement has two main parts.

The first is restructuring the High National Elections Commission (HNEC), the agency in charge of organizing elections.

In practice, this means replacing its leadership to settle disputes over appointments and regional representation.

Although these changes were long delayed by regional quotas and political patronage stemming from the 2015 Skhirat agreement, rivals can still negotiate them with relative ease.

The 24-month timeline to hold elections was also established.

However, the countdown is designed to govern the transition only once a single, unified executive authority and unified national institutions are established to oversee the voting process.