What Are Our Predictions for the Rest of the Year on the Billboard Hot 100?

There’s just two full calendar months left in 2026, and with the holiday season fast approaching — and Halloween season actually approaching even faster — it feels like a good time to take stock of where we are on the Billboard Hot 100 , and make some predictions for the year’s closing days.

After Ella Langley ‘s “Choosin’ Texas” broke the record for longest stay at No.

1 on the Hot 100 with its 23rd week on top — and then added a 24th for good measure — it’s now been out of pole position for three weeks, replaced by Taylor Swift’s “Choosin’ Texas.” But a couple fast-rising hits could threaten both on the Hot 100 in the weeks to come, as could a number of debuts from high-profile artists that should impact the chart next week.

Which of those songs is the most likely to nab a week or two on top? And are we more interested in the Halloween or Christmas race for No.

1 this year? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1.

Following 24 weeks (including 12 in a row) on top for Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas,” Taylor Swift’s “Patient Zero” has been No.

1 for the last three weeks, with “Texas” bumped to No.

2.

Which of the two songs do you think will have more weeks at No.

1 for the remainder of the calendar year? Katie Atkinson: It all depends on when Mariah Season returns, but I’m thinking “Choosin’ Texas” could realistically have another month at No.

1 before the holidays.

I don’t make a habit of betting against Taylor Swift, but I think Ella will easily two-step back to the top, just like she’s done multiple times before this year.

Kyle Denis : Probably “Choosin’ Texas”; Ella Langley is basically rewriting the definition of “insurmountable” before our very eyes.