McKinsey: Automation could absorb half of U.S. work hours by 2035. The bigger challenge is skills

Good morning.

AI could automate more than half of U.S. work hours over the next decade.

But that doesn’t mean half the workforce will disappear.

That’s a key finding of new research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).

The report estimates that technological and economic changes could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of 36 million jobs over the next decade.

At the same time, economic growth, including growth in AI-related industries and services, could create demand for about 41 million jobs.

The U.S. could have more jobs in 2035 than today, even as technology changes how people work and the skills they need.

The challenge is that new jobs may require different skills from those workers have today.

In fields such as management and law, where judgment, coordination and accountability matter, AI is more likely to help people do their jobs than replace them outright.

It may also create new responsibilities that require training, from checking AI-generated work to ensuring its responsible use and redesigning workflows.

Office and administrative support roles face particular exposure to automation, with roughly 80% of current work hours potentially automated by 2035.

That doesn’t mean 80% of jobs will disappear, but it signals how significantly these roles could change.

For some workers, adapting will mean moving into entirely different occupations.

MGI estimates that about 11 million Americans may need to leave declining occupations for new ones.