Worsening El Nino threatens Asia with severe drought, potentially threatening global food security

BANTEN, Indonesia (AP) — All signs are pointing toward a record-breaking El Nino this year, which experts say may cause severe drought in Asia and other extreme weather across the world, threatening food security for millions of people.

El Nino is part of a natural climate cycle of warming ocean temperatures, but this year's is expected to reach new extremes of drought, heat waves, flooding and other climate-related disruptions in South America, Africa and Asia.

Southeast Asia is one of the world's most climate vulnerable regions. It's already beset by an energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran. El Nino is already fueling wildfires across farmland, depleting water supplies for major cities and hurting fish catches in the region.

Asian governments that have been drawing on their financial reserves to mitigate the war's ripple effects of higher energy costs and scarce fertilizer supplies have less capacity to cope with this year's intensifying El Nino, which is forecast to peak in December.

The phenomenon may amplify other crises in Southeast Asia, according to Paul Teng, with Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, who said, "El Nino is only compounding all the other problems that we see."

During El Nino years, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual. This happens every few years and often alters global weather patterns.

This year, the seas already are hotter than average, with global oceans hitting new temperature records in August as the climate warms, said Kareff Rafisura, chief of the Disaster Risk Reduction Division at the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

This intensifying El Nino may be the "strongest in living memory," according to the United Kingdom's national weather and climate service. Similarly, the U.S.' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a 69% chance that this will be the strongest recorded El Nino since record-keeping began in 1950.

El Nino's impact will be felt differently across regions, but it is expected to jeopardize food security worldwide. It could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, according to the United Nations' World Food Program.

The problem will be worst in parts of Central America and southern Africa, with significant effects also anticipated in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia, warned the food agency.

In Southeast Asia, wildfires are torching forests and peatlands in Indonesia, sending up plumes of toxic haze. The water level of a major reservoir supplying the bustling capital city of Jakarta — the world's biggest metropolis — is dropping inch by inch.

WATCH: Southeast Asia endures punishing year of extreme weather amid super El Niño

As the lake dries, the ruins of one of 11 villages that had been inundated by the reservoir have emerged, as alarm grows over the need for alternative water supplies for the city of 42 million.

"I would have rather not moved. There were plenty of livelihood opportunities here," said Hussen, who only uses one name, as he ferried people across the receding reservoir.