Exclusive: Scalise puts GOP high-water mark at 225 House seats

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is staring at a scary political environment for Republicans and claiming to see something very different: a path to 225 seats .

Why it matters: Republican leaders insist they can retain the majority, but only if they drive their voters to the polls by manufacturing the kind of voter enthusiasm Democrats are generating organically.

"If we make it a contrast election, we win," Scalise told Axios in an interview Thursday.

"We could get to 225.

It would be a good night for us if we did, but it's possible," he said.

"235 is not," he said.

"You're literally doing coin tosses in a couple of seats." Between the lines: Asked if he saw any signs of a blue wave forming or the map expanding, Scalise said: "Not right now.

No." Reality check: Republicans know that history — and many of the indicators heading into November — is working against them.

"I know what history says, you know, but history's not on the ballot," Scalise said.

Still, Democrats are turning out in primaries — and special elections — as if they're getting free gas cards for showing up.

Democrats lead by nearly nine percentage points on the generic ballot.

President Trump's approval rating is below 40%, according to the RealClearPolitics average .

And Trump is underwater by a whopping 61 percentage points on inflation in a recent poll, an apparent record .

Zoom in: Republicans are examining the map with a jeweler's loupe and insist the picture isn't as bleak in the pivotal battleground seats.