Data center gas plants to boost U.S. power emissions by 20%

Data center developers are turning to bespoke natural-gas power plants, a development that promises to dramatically increase carbon emissions and make it harder for US technology companies to meet their lofty climate goals.

Ninety-nine proposed plants tracked by BloombergNEF would emit about 318 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually if run at industry-standard rates, according to a Bloomberg News analysis.

The entire US electric power industry emitted about 1,485 million metric tons of carbon last year, according to Energy Information Administration data , meaning one slice of data center infrastructure has the potential to lift US power sector emissions by 20%, and as much as a third should the new plants run flat out.

The data center building boom has already strained the US electricity system, prompting reliability concerns and moratoriums on new project approvals.

With even greenlit facilities facing yearslong delays connecting to regulated electricity grids, data center developers are seeking alternatives.

These include so-called behind-the-meter projects that can be permitted and built without the approval of utilities or the independent system operators charged with ensuring grid reliability.

“There is immense, immense pressure on the whole sector to get power, and get it fast,” said David Pomerantz, executive director of the Energy and Policy Institute, a utility watchdog that promotes renewables.

“They’re sort of agnostic if it is clean or dirty.” Not all of the proposed plants in the BNEF data are likely to be built.

The rush to capitalize on AI developers’ seemingly bottomless demand for computing power has produced some phantom projects and long-shot pitches.

Bloomberg’s estimate of the likely emissions is based on 126 gigawatts of total planned on-site gas generation capacity tracked by BloombergNEF, an energy research firm owned by Bloomberg LP.

The carbon footprint was calculated using a range of usage from an industry average of 60% to 100% for round-the-clock deployment, and a gas burn rate of a typical single-cycle gas generator.

Emissions will vary depending on the use and the fuel-efficiency of the generator.

A single-cycle model is now one of the most common types planned although it’s dirtier than combined-cycle plants that data center developers want but are struggling to get owing to a yearslong backlog for turbines.

The BNEF data includes projects backed by the leading AI labs, OpenAI and Anthropic PBC, upstart data center operators that fashion themselves as AI specialists, as well as cloud-computing giants and investor groups seeking tenants.