Why Affordability Politics Breed Economic Illiteracy

Of all the outrages and betrayals that Donald Trump has had perpetrated against him—by ungrateful subordinates, by obstreperous prosecutors, by treacherous journalists—perhaps his saddest falling-out is with a simple word.

“Starting on day one, we will defeat inflation quickly, and we will make America affordable again,” he declared in an ad during his 2024 presidential campaign.

A year later, Trump confessed to still having some affinity for the word.

Speaking at a summit hosted by McDonald’s, the president promised imminent prosperity: “That begins with making America, we have to do—the word is affordable —and affordable should be our word, not theirs.” These days, the word itself is, like all of Trump’s enemies, the frequent target of invective.

The president describes the concept of affordability as, variously, a Democratic “ con job ,” as “a new word—nobody ever heard the word,” and, most damningly of all, as “ fake .” The reasons for this lexical animosity are clear.

The word that the president once wielded with great effect against Democrats in 2024 is now being used against him with seemingly equal effect by his opponents.

Affordability is the Democrats’ unifying theme, which, despite them lacking coherence on almost every other issue, may be enough to carry them to victory in the November midterm elections. (Nate Silver estimates that in the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are leading by a crushing 7.5 percentage points.) And no wonder.

Inflation remains high; gas prices, which Trump promised in 2024 would settle below $2 a gallon, are now above $4 thanks to the president’s war with Iran; mortgage rates, which Trump said would drop to 2 percent, are instead near 7 percent. [ Marc Novicoff: Gas prices could cost Republicans the midterms ] But Democrats shouldn’t expect to hang on to their advantage here; far more likely, the inversion will recur.

You can imagine America settling into a persistent politics of affordability, in which the arguments are always the same but the positions of accuser and accused are swapped depending on who holds power.

Democrats are, for example, pledging that if they win the midterm elections, they will crusade for lower costs “of groceries, of housing, of childcare and elder care.” Perhaps such competition would be salutary; more likely, it would be Sisyphean—an unending cycle of accusation, disappointment, and recrimination.

There are three reasons for pessimism.

The first is that affordability politics are a breeding ground for economically illiterate policy ideas.

Popular anger over inflation is usually directed at cumulative price increases over the course of years.

But literally decreasing prices is exceptionally hard to accomplish, even if that is what voters want.