Retail CEOs see a holiday paradox: shoppers are anxious but still willing to spend

In today’s CEO Daily: A look ahead at the 2026 holiday season.

The big leadership story: Meta’s Muse AI takes off—and draws backlash.

The markets: Mixed after Trump reported having a ‘very good meeting’ with Iran.

Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune .

Good morning.

Phil Wahba writing from New York this morning.

As consumer and retail CEOs see the holiday season inching closer, they’re trying to figure out whether U.S. customers will keep up their healthy pace of shopping—even in the face of all political and economic tumult—or finally pull back.

There’s one thing chief executives agree on: the U.S. consumer is anxious and their spending can’t be taken for granted.

“What we’ve seen in this economy is a customer across all cohorts of income levels being somewhat distressed, especially in sustained inflation,” Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos told a Goldman Sachs retail conference last week.

And yet the U.S. consumer continues to spend—for now, and likely through the end of the year.

Consulting firm AlixPartners’ 2026 holiday forecast predicts holiday season sales will rise 4% to 7% even as 57% of Americans say they are worse off than a year ago, and many say they should spend less this year.

That contradiction comes down to a combination of relatively low unemployment, negative headlines, and retailers doling out deals: shoppers know they should tighten their budgets given current events, but they still have money to spend and are instead focusing on squeezing more out of each dollar.

Vasos sees that trend in the habits of Dollar General shoppers.

He says households making $100,000 or more are trading down to Dollar General from competitors like Walmart .