Five things to watch after Trump's Russian diesel deal

President Trump is turning to Vladimir Putin to help ease a global diesel crunch, setting up a clash between Washington's energy priorities and its efforts to pressure Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Why it matters: The fuel shortage is among the most severe effects of the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

Average U.S. diesel prices remain far above $6 per gallon, adding to GOP headwinds in the midterm elections.

Trump says his deal will help bring costs down.

Catch up quick: Trump on Friday claimed an agreement to bring escalating Russian exports, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions to help enable it.

A few things to watch...

The campaign trail.

So far a few Republicans in close races — including Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers and Alaska Sen.

Dan Sullivan — have criticized the agreement.

Republicans already saddled with Trump's unpopular policies in the midterms now face another awkward choice: whether to back his diesel deal with a dictator many of them despise, Axios' Andrew Pantazi writes.

The market.

Diesel futures dipped after the announcement.

But analysts expressed doubt that the levels Trump is claiming will meaningfully sway prices in the U.S. and elsewhere — if Russia indeed delivers.

Per Trump's claim, Russia will "immediately" provide what amounts to 2.24 million barrels, followed 3.73 million next month (equivalent to around 124,000 barrels per day spread over a month), and then roughly double it thereafter.