Cold weather and high prices could flip the Senate

Maine Sen.

Susan Collins is behind in one poll by just 2 points as the midterm campaign enters its home stretch. | Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call This story appeared in Today, Explained, a daily newsletter that helps you understand the most compelling news and stories of the day.

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Throughout his second term, President Donald Trump has saddled his party with no shortage of political liabilities — from the mass pardons of January 6 convictions to ICE killings of US citizens to questionable Reflecting Pool redesign choices.

For voters, however, there is one stain on Trump’s record more unsightly than all the rest: his failure to reduce Americans’ cost of living .

As the midterm campaign enters its home stretch, Americans’ expenses are rising — and the GOP’s prospects are consequently dimming.

Last month, consumer prices were 3.7 percent higher than they had been one year earlier, according to a Consumer Price Index report released on Wednesday.

That represented an acceleration in the inflation rate, one driven largely by skyrocketing fuel prices: Gasoline was 9.1 percent more expensive in September than it had been in August.

As a result, America’s average real wage has fallen by 44 cents since January.

In less than three weeks, Americans will head to the polls to decide which party controls Congress, along with a slew of state and local offices.

As we count down to that momentous and potentially messy day, this newsletter is partnering with our colleague Astead Herndon and Vox’s The Midterms, Actually team for weekly editions on the biggest issues shaping the midterms.

We’re breaking down one issue each week and suggesting further reading and races to watch in November.

Last week, we tackled the data center backlash .

And this week, we’re digging into affordability.