Kansas Has Emerged as a Senate Battleground State. Here’s Why It Matters

Sen.

Roger Marshall attends a speech by U.S.

Vice President JD Vance at Webco Manufacturing on Sept.

14, 2026, in Olathe, Kansas. —Mark Schiefelbein—Getty Images Kansas has emerged as a surprise battleground in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections.

The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years, but Republican Sen.

Roger Marshall now faces a close challenge from megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton—with repercussions that will extend beyond Kansas, as Republicans fight to keep their Senate majority this November.

An Emerson College/Nexstar Media survey of 750 likely voters showed that Hamilton had 45% of support next to Marshall’s 43% as of September.

In comparison, Marshall won his 2020 general election with 53% of the vote, topping his competitor by 11 points.

Read More: Congress Is Headed for a Massive Turnover In this race, Marshall has the financial upper hand.

His campaign had reserved $2.3 million in advertising as of Oct.

2, compared with $590,000 reserved by Hamilton’s campaign, according to AdImpact figures reported by the Associated Press .

Including outside groups, nearly 10 times as much advertising had been reserved to support Marshall as Hamilton.

Marshall also has Kansas’s recent voting history on his side.

President Donald Trump carried the state by 16 points in 2024—a sizable Republican advantage.