China Is Flatlining

Compared with Donald Trump’s chaotic, divided, and violent America, China is a bastion of steady progress and serene order.

This, at least, is the story that Beijing’s propagandists have been eager to spread.

The Global Times , a Communist Party–run news outlet, proclaimed earlier this year that “the world’s peace and development increasingly rely on China’s stability.” The state news agency Xinhua chimed in that “in today’s uncertain world, China’s stability and predictability provide a rare and valuable anchor, which is set to benefit other countries.” This message appears to be resonating around the world.

A Pew Research Center survey of three dozen countries recently found that China is now seen more positively than the United States.

Respondents expressed more confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to “do the right thing” in world affairs than Trump.

China’s stability may appear desirable to a world in turmoil.

But inside China, this “stability” looks a lot like policy paralysis, economic stagnation, and intensified political repression.

What all the handwringing over China’s growing influence and surging exports fails to recognize is that the country is flatlining politically and economically.

The evidence is in plain sight.

Policy makers around the world are understandably fixating on China’s abundant and cheap electric cars and competitive AI models, which present a serious threat to national industries.

But these advances are one small part of a broader economy with pernicious and deep-rooted problems.

The country’s property-market downturn, triggered by the 2021 meltdown of the real-estate developer Evergrande, has not hit bottom.

Home prices continue to fall, eating away at the wealth of many middle-class households.

Trump’s war with Iran has pushed up oil prices, raising the cost of production for Chinese companies and ending three years of deflation.