ANALYSIS: If Zuma’s MK is knocking on KZN’s door, will eThekwini open it?

{JSON.stringify(article.attachments[0], null, 2)} --> Judge’s order to oust NFP MPL Mbali Shinga boosts party boss Ivan Barnes, nudging Jacob Zuma’s MK party within reach of KwaZulu-Natal’s R150bn budget.

Jacob Zuma’s MK party may be riven by internal turmoil and dogged by financial woes, but could it be on the brink of taking control of KwaZulu-Natal?

The party’s opponents predictably refute this, but MK, with 37 seats in the 80-member KZN legislature, is just shy of control thanks to a lesser-known politician named Ivan Barnes.

Thanks to a high court judgment this week, MK could be a smidgen closer, even though its enemies are determined that Zuma’s party will not lay its hands on the province’s R150-billion budget.

The court judgment comes on the heels of an Ipsos poll that puts MK support in Durban as high as 55%, meaning the party could also soon wrest control of the municipality (and its R70-billion budget).

MK’s bid for the provincial prize was bolstered by the ruling this week by high court judge Sidwell Mngadi.

NFP leadership wrangling over its solitary representative in the legislature has seen party leaders clash in a series of court cases.

After the May 2024 national elections, MK dominated in KZN with its 37 seats, but was kept out of power by a coalition of the Inkatha Freedom Party, African National Congress, Democratic Alliance and the NFP.

The NFP’s support gave the coalition 41 seats in the legislature vs the MK’s 37, plus the EFF’s promised support of its two seats.

As a reward for her support, the NFP’s sole MPL, Mbali Shinga, was appointed KZN social welfare MEC, but NFP strife has since led to various court challenges by NFP president Barnes to oust her.

Shinga’s lawyers have won most skirmishes and in June secured an interdict stopping her expulsion, pending an appeal against the NFP disciplinary action against her.

The party acted against her because she defied NPF orders to support an MK-sponsored vote of no confidence in KZN premier Thami Ntuli.

But this week Barnes, an MK ally, emerged victorious when Judge Mngadi ordered Shinga to vacate her legislature seat.

Even if the MK, EFF and NFP (soon to be represented by Barnes) launched another vote of no confidence against the Ntuli and coalition-led provincial government, it would be a stalemate with their combined 40 votes against the IFP, ANC and DA’s 40.