COMING IN HOT: Very strong El Niño is a ‘stress test’ for SA’s food systems

A very strong El Niño is likely to persist until February 2027, potentially bringing drier, hotter summers to South Africa and raising heatwave, crop and food security risks.

As of 15 September The Climate Brink records that sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, characterised by El Niño, have strengthened to +3.01°C above average.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) , El Niño is characterised by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. In the Pacific Ocean, warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures usually mean El Niño conditions, which occur when easterly trade winds become weaker, the WMO says.

There is a near 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist until February 2027, according to the organisation.

According to the South African Weather Service (SAWS) , most El Niño events bring conditions of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to the southern African region.

The service’s latest seasonal forecast for October to December 2026 indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa. The country is also very likely to see above-normal temperatures during this period. The rainfall and temperature forecast for November 2026 to January 2027 is very similar to October to December 2026, with the most likely outcome being drier and warmer conditions over most of the country.

Although below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome in southern Africa this summer, not every El Niño event is associated with drought. The very strong El Niño event of 1997/98 was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region.

Global warming cannot be ignored, SAWS seasonal forecaster Christien Engelbrecht told Daily Maverick. Global warming and El Niño can act together to make temperatures even warmer if the weather patterns follow SAWS’ current predictions, Engelbrecht said.

The expected very strong El Niño of 2026/27, in combination with global warming, is likely to result in 2027 being the warmest year yet recorded. If this El Niño event brings the expected below-normal rainfall to southern Africa, it is likely that a high frequency of heatwaves will co-occur and these have the potential to be severe. However, the eventual strength and regional impacts of El Niño remain uncertain.

At this stage, El Niño must be regarded as a significant production and price risk rather than confirmation of crop losses or food price increases, said Ikalafeng Kgakatsi, the director of the Disaster Management and Climate Change Directorate at the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.

According to Kgakatsi, the above-normal rainfall in the 2025/26 summer provided a vital buffer by boosting dam levels and initial soil moisture, aiding in South Africa’s current record maize supply.

The latest figures from the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) indicate that South Africa enters the 2026/27 marketing period in a relatively strong maize supply position, he said.