Solar and EVs in South Africa: what the numbers actually say

South Africans paid R26.92/ l for 95 unleaded inland when prices rose on 2 September . Average Brent crude climbed to US$87.88 from $82.37 in the review period, on US-Iran tensions and renewed fears over the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent has since pushed above $100 for the first time since July, and mid-September data from the Central Energy Fund points to increases of more than R2/ l in October, as Business Day reported . If the projections hold to the 7 October adjustment, inland 95 will reach nearly R29/ l , breaking the record of R28.06 set in June.

The fuel price shock lends weight to an argument now circulating in the solar industry.

Patrick Narbel, co-founder and CTO of rooftop solar subscription company GoSolr, contends that solar panels and electric vehicles have stopped being environmental purchases alone and become financial ones – a hedge against imported fuel shocks and Eskom tariffs that keep outrunning inflation. GoSolr sells rooftop solar, so the claim deserves testing.

Rod Crompton, a former fuel price regulator and Nersa board member now at Wits Business School’s African Energy Leadership Centre, and his colleague Bruce Young calculated in May that net imports of petrol, diesel and kerosene run at about 81% of consumption, against roughly eight million barrels of strategic stock.

On demand of about 600 000 barrels a day, that is 13 days of cover, or 18 counting Sasol’s output, against a policy target of 90 days. They caution that the underlying industry data is unreliable, which is itself part of the problem.

Cabinet has since approved a draft strategic petroleum stock policy, gazetted on 9 July , that would oblige the state to hold 60 days of net imports and licensed wholesalers and importers 21 days, at their own cost.

“The geopolitical disruptions we continue to witness have exposed the risks associated with excessive dependence on imported refined petroleum products,” mineral & petroleum resources minister Gwede Mantashe said.

A petrol hatchback burning 7 l /100km costs R188 in fuel per 100km at September’s inland price, or R1.88/km. An electric car drawing 18kWh/100km, charged at home on the City of Cape Town’s home user tariff above 600kWh/month – 469.06c/kWh including VAT – costs R84, or 84c/km. Over 15 000km/year, the difference is about R15 600. At the R29/ l October is pointing towards, the savings widen to roughly R17 900/year.

The catch is what it costs to get in. The cheapest electric cars cost about R340 000, while 61% of new car sales happen below R400 000. Every R100 000 of premium over a comparable petrol car takes about six and a half years of average driving to recover on fuel alone at September prices, and closer to five and a half at October’s – before financing. Buyers are aware of this.

In South Africa, electric car sales remained at less than 1% of new car sales in 2025, with plug-in hybrids taking more than 70% of that. Of the 13 193 new-energy vehicles Naamsa has counted so far this year, just 1 903 were full battery-electric vehicles.

The sums already work for high-mileage fleets, though.