LOCAL ELECTIONS: Voters splinter among parties as support for the ANC plunges

New polling suggests voters are starting to favour smaller parties rather than rallying behind the DA as the ANC loses ground across the metros ahead of November’s local government elections.

Although recent polling data indicates the ANC will lose more ground in the metros, experts warn that this can’t yet be read as a shift from the ANC to the DA. Rather, it may signal that South African politics are becoming more fragmented.

Data published on 4 September by the market research company Ipsos predicted that support for the ANC is set to slip further to just 31%, a significant decline from the 45.6% it achieved in 2021.

Other polling data published by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation (SRF) on 9 September showed the once-solid black vote in South Africa has fragmented dramatically, with citizens dispersing their preferences among the ANC (36%), Umkhonto weSizwe party (MK) (24%), DA (13%), EFF (12%) and smaller parties (15%).

The same survey showed the ANC with 34% of voters in South Africa, with the DA at 27%, MK at 15% and the EFF at 7% of likely voters. It had a margin of error of 2.1%. It was conducted between 8 July and 31 July and used a turnout model of 53%.

Dr Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer in the department of history and political studies at Nelson Mandela University, warns that the ANC’s decline in support may signal that our political system is moving further into fragmentation.

“The trend that we are seeing in South Africa is what I’ve called dynamic fragmentation. We are seeing a reduction in the dominance of the ANC as a party without a corresponding rise of a rival party that has got any meaningful challenge to the ANC. So, the DA is rising steadily, but remains constrained when it comes to a decisive shift of electoral preferences,” Mtimka told Daily Maverick.

Ipsos found that the ANC is likely to lose its outright majorities in Mangaung and Buffalo City, sliding behind the DA in both cities, and to see significant declines in support in every other metro.

The ANC’s election campaign has got off to a faltering start. The party is currently locked in a heated dispute with the Electoral Commission (IEC) after it blamed its failure to submit candidates in key Eastern Cape municipalities on time on an alleged technical glitch.

The IEC has since disputed that there was a technical glitch at its end and refused to reopen its portal for the affected candidates. Further, the party has yet to finalise its candidates for key metros, instead publishing a list of 42 candidates across all eight metros.

But the second-biggest party by vote share, the DA, may not have cause to celebrate, as it is predicted to lose its outright majority in the City of Cape Town as well. The polling data shows that the only political party on track to win an outright majority in one of the major metros is MK.

Ipsos found that while it is likely to retain its third-place spot nationally at 14%, its support is concentrated in its stronghold of eThekwini, where it is expected to win 55% of the vote.

The results are highly dependent on voter turnout.