LEADERSHIP LEAPS: Fikile Mbalula’s path to higher office faces new hurdles from ANC turmoil

{JSON.stringify(article.attachments[0], null, 2)} --> Fikile Mbalula faces mounting pressure as the ANC’s electoral setback and his legal battle with Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma threaten to reshape his political prospects. The crises could also expose deeper factional tensions within the ANC and test Mbalula’s ambitions for higher office.

It is a recurring fact throughout our democratic history that the position of secretary-general of the ANC is one of the most pressured jobs in the country. Fikile Mbalula is probably under the most intense pressure of his political career. His response could well determine whether he can ever enter the Union Buildings.

Mbalula has suddenly found himself as the face of two political dynamics that could completely change the trajectory of his party.

The first is yesterday’s Electoral Court defeat, which means the party will not be able to field candidates in some towns and metros for the local elections. The ANC could well lose any chance of retaining power in some places as a direct result.

The second, his defamation action against Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma after she claimed he paid cash to ANC delegates during the party’s 2022 conference, could well contain enough political bullets to do him serious damage.

Worse, it is likely the real target of her claims is not him, but President Cyril Ramaphosa. Which means that if he does not prevail in this dispute, Ramaphosa himself could be vulnerable.

The first problem, the Electoral Court defeat, concerns his ultimate responsibility as the equivalent of the chief accounting officer in the ANC. This means the party’s failure to fully comply with the Electoral Commission’s requirements, and thus its loss of seats in November, could well be landed at his door.

Many ANC councillors could be about to lose their positions, their power, their patronage and their livelihoods because of this simple, technical mistake.

And while there are several steps a party has to go through to legally register its candidates, on the face of it there can be no excuse for failing to do this properly. All other serious parties were able to go through the same process with no problems.

However, it is unlikely Mbalula will be left to carry the blame for this alone. While it has not been publicly stated, it is very likely the main reason this happened is that ANC structures, the regions and provinces, provided many of their details very late.

This might well be because they wanted to stop Mbalula as a person, and Luthuli House as the national ANC, from editing their list. They wanted to prevent any of their choices from being removed.

The fiasco that saw the ANC being unable to announce mayoral candidates for metros shows how intense these internal dynamics are (as is the continued disastrous tenure of Dada Morero as Johannesburg mayor, despite the fact Loyiso Masuku is the leader of the ANC’s Joburg region).

This shows how the real culprit in this is infighting within the ANC itself. Thus, Mbalula might well say that this is really the fault of other ANC structures.

In the time-honoured way of the ANC, in public everyone will agree to “share responsibility”.