Drought-hit Kenya should lift ban on GMO maize imports to prioritise its food security

Kenya is facing a maize shortage, but it may not be able to receive any from South Africa. It’s not because of a refusal to supply, but owing to Kenya’s policy rigidities. This poses immense food security challenges for Kenyans.

Wandile Sihlobo is the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.

Kenya’s drought has devastated the maize crop. Recent data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that Kenya will not have sufficient maize to meet its annual requirements. The country must now rely on imports to fulfil its needs.

Kenya may need to import about two million tonnes of maize to meet its annual requirement of four million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year.

Ordinarily, this would not be a challenge as the global market is awash with maize. But Kenya and many African countries use white maize for human consumption. And white maize is not widely produced.

The largest producers include Mexico, South Africa and Zambia. Major maize producers such as the US and South American countries generally produce yellow maize, which is used for animal feed and industrial purposes, among other things. White maize production in these countries is typically small. This leaves Kenya with few countries to explore for maize imports, as it faces a shortage.

South Africa is better placed to supply maize to Kenya, with a record maize harvest of 17.4 million tonnes (against its annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes). In fact, South Africa can export more than 3.0 million tonnes of maize in the current marketing year that ends in April 2026.

We already see exports to countries in the Far East and neighbouring countries. For example, between the start of May 2026, the beginning of the current 2026-27 marketing year, and the start of September 2026, South Africa had already exported about 1.1 million tonnes of maize to markets such as South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and southern African countries.

But Kenya, which imports most of its maize, may not be able to receive maize from South Africa. The challenge won’t be South Africa’s refusal to supply maize to Kenya, but Kenya’s policy rigidities.

Put simply, South Africa won’t be able to export maize to Kenya because the country still bans genetically modified maize imports. Given the limited global supply of white maize and South Africa’s status as a major supplier, Kenya may suddenly struggle to secure maize imports, leading to a “self-created” shortage.

This policy rigidity in Kenya’s agricultural sector poses immense food security challenges for Kenyans; these restrictions can block access to affordable maize from South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, the US and others. In times like this, policymakers must prioritise people’s food security needs.

Ideally, Kenya should review its genetically modified maize import restrictions in seasons like this. South Africa, the major maize producer, has roughly 85% of its maize production as genetically modified.