Fuel price pain deepens as projected October petrol and diesel hikes grow

1008713175__20260806__0 Steep petrol and diesel price hikes are predicted for October.

South Africa’s impending fuel price calamity could be worse than originally anticipated, with strong under-recoveries for petrol and diesel worsening the outlook as each day passes.

The latest daily snapshot from the Central Energy Fund is pointing to petrol price increases of between R2.83 for 95 Unleaded and R2.66 for 93 Unleaded.

Diesel prices are looking set to rise by between R2.60 for 500ppm and R3.01 for the cleaner 50ppm.

These projected increases will see prices rising to record levels across the board, with 95 Unleaded petrol expected to reach R28.88 at the coast and R29.75 in Gauteng, with 93 Unleaded rising to around R29.42. The wholesale price of 500ppm diesel looks set to reach around R30.83 at the coast and R31.71 inland.

These projections are significantly higher than they were a week ago , when petrol was predicted to rise by around R2.40 and diesel by between R2.04 and R2.40.

These increases will follow September's steep adjustments , when both grades of petrol rose by R1.34 a litre and diesel increased by between R2.94 and R3.15.

The Slate Levy, which compensates oil companies for fluctuations in the preceding month, could add further pressure to fuel prices in October.

Behind these impending increases are steep international oil prices , with Brent crude having touched a four-month high of $108 per barrel last week following escalating tensions in the Middle East , and more specifically, fresh attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure by Iran-based fighters.

Brent has since subsided to around $101 per barrel, as Saudi Arabia shifted exports towards its eastern Gulf terminals, but that has done little to erode the large under-recoveries that have developed on international fuel prices.

Markets are currently watching for possible US-Iran talks at the UN General Assembly. Even the prospect of negotiations is enough to reduce some of the risk premium that had been built into crude prices.